Crowd Wisdom in Financial Markets

In a nine month long collaborative venture with Dysrupt Laboratories Ltd, a market leader in the commercialisation of collective intelligence, Realworld Capital and Dysrupt explored the positive effect of crowd wisdom in forecasting financial market cycles.

We conducted an experiment where we looked to determine whether collective intelligence could better predict longer term market trends. Daily signals aggregated from crowd forecasting are measured against subsequent market moves to determine their predictive attributes.

Dysrupt Laboratories developed Almanis, a dedicated crowd forecasting platform which asks questions of global geopolitical, economic, industrial and financial significance.

Wisdom of crowds: forecasting supercycles

A series of cycle-direction financial market questions was posted on our Portfolio Questions page hyperlinked to almanis.com where forecasters are asked to make directional forecasts.

The more the crowd contributed to the collective intelligence, the more accurate predictive outcomes were likely to be. There was no cost or secondary obligations related to user participation. Attaining accurate market signals ahead of market moves was the ultimate objective.

In parallel to the experiment, Realworld Capital managed selected proprietary investments in FX, global equities and government bonds, commodities, precious metals and emerging markets, where fundamental value was supported by a strong technical environment.

 

 

 

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