Dysrupt Laboratories (Dysruptlabs.com) is an Australian based company that manages a number of platforms which harness collective intelligence (“CI”) to accurately forecast the likelihood of future events.
Collective intelligence, also known as ‘the wisdom of crowds’, has now been commercialised through technology allowing multiple individuals to pool their insight, fill in missing pieces of information and cancel out biases and groupthink. When this intelligence is applied to forecasting the future, the results have been known to be far more accurate than even the smartest individual or expert. Recent research literature highlights that traditional forecasting, even with experts, is consistently accurate no more than 5 or 6 in 10 times. Collective forecasting markets, sometimes referred to as prediction markets, can generate consistent forecast accuracy 7 times in 10.
Over 100 years of scientific research, and 962 academic publications has proven this theory, but it has only recently become possible to efficiently aggregate and leverage collective intelligence through technology, on its ground breaking forecasting platform – www.almanis.com
Almanis is just one platform owned by Dysrupt Laboratories and in partnership with Realworld Capital, a London-based financial services company, they are conducting an experiment to test the application of CI in financial markets. To join the forecasting community and be rewarded for your efforts visit Portfolio Questions, select questions of interest and begin forecasting on Almanis. Please find time to also browse through the links below to discover more about collective intelligence.
Crowdsourcing platforms can enhance an organisation’s management decisions and governance, by harnessing the ‘wisdom of the crowds’. Prediction markets go one step further: to also provide an iterative summary signal of the crowd estimate back to participants. Evidence is accumulating that prediction markets can perform better than opinion experts, management consultants and surveys under specific conditions. Multinational and other companies are currently using prediction markets predominantly for improved information delivery, and adopting reward structures to induce informed participation by employees. This is an abridged and revised version of a paper presented at the 2016 Melbourne Money and Finance Conference.
Society’s economic, corporate, and public policy decisions are often times influenced by the advice and discretion of experts. The decisions making process involves making predictions about the underlying uncertainty that surrounds the social issue at hand. Differences in research methods, facts, beliefs, and values bring about the variety and differences in opinion amongst a group of experts or decision makers. For the non-expert who is often times presented with a plethora of expert opinion, deciding who to believe or weighing all the opinion may not be an easy process. Economists believe that financial markets do a good job in aggregating information in part because they provide the participants with strong…
While collective intelligence is not a new phenomenon, the internet and digital media have greatly extended the possibilities of remote collective collaboration. The joint effect of a networked public, digital platform and open organisations are allowing knowledge to emerge from truly novel forms of social interaction. However, not all collective digital projects are successful in engaging people and generating significant outcomes. It is therefore important to understand what are the mechanisms that underlie co–operative processes of knowledge exchange and development. This paper discusses some of the prerequisites for collective intelligence: the cognitive predisposition that allows humans…